It could happen to any of us.

This week is truly full of dreadful news and the recent downing of the Malaysian Airways jet MH 17 at the Eastern border of Ukraine and Russia by Pro-Russian militia with a BUK missile is an horrendous crime against humanity, 298 people died. One can only hope that they felt nothing and that their death was quick and painless.

The spectacle of the Pro-Russian militia and Russian agents looting the personal belongings of the dead is not only revolting but shows the level of barbarity of those so called Pro-Russian militias and the Russian government. As an ex-Foreign Service Officer I knew from my days in the service during the Cold War that the Soviets (Russians) had absolutely no scruples and no morals whatsoever. After all they supported Nazi Germany and had a secret pact to destroy Eastern Europe and its population. Then in 1941 Soviet Russia decides to switch sides and join the Allies because it was risking annihilation at the hands of Nazi Germany. So you can see that political calculation and hedging their bets is an old Russian way of doing business. They invoke the Raison d'Etat, you do what you have to do and morals or scruples do not enter into it. Something politicians are loath to admit to the electorate in Western Countries.

When MH17 was shot down, someone asked me if I thought there would be consequences or that President Putin would be made to pay. I answered that little if anything will be done, there will be no reprisal. There will be lots of angry words but not much else, just enough to occupy the Media and distract the public.

This is what has happened so far, France is still selling to Russia two war ships a deal worth 1.5 billion Euros, President Hollande of France said he did not see any reason to cancel the sale.
Germany is thinking about its gas supplies it receives from Russia and has no other source of heat for the coming winter, not to mention the important trade ties, despite German sympathies for the victims there is a limit to what they are willing to endure.

Britain has made lots of angry pronouncements but Russian money is still flooding the Financial markets in the City, where would the City be without all the oligarchs and their money?

Italy is against sanctions because it would damage its luxury goods market to Russia and given its fragile economy Italy needs all the export sales it can get.  As for The Netherlands who had the most dead in this tragedy, it has been strangely quiet.

Everyone in the EU is thinking Trade and Economics, do not jeopardize the economics and Putin knows that, he knows all too well that he is holding the strong cards. Even the USA is very reluctant to do anything because it does not want to be caught in a situation where Russia could manoeuvre between it and a divided Europe.  Also no one wants to go to war, not over Ukraine and not over a down passenger airliner, it is not worth it, too much is at stake in terms of trade, oil and gas and the politicians know it. But what does it say to Ukrainians about the EU? Not much really, Ukraine you are on your own.

So we have the public message of Western politicians to the people carefully crafted by the Spin experts and then we have the reality of trade and economics. Because if a Western politician in France, Germany, UK, Italy or USA took serious steps to sanctions and punish Russia political consequences would follow. For all of our wringing of hands and our words of sorrow over the dead civilians, none of us would like to suffer the consequences of a Russian angry response and yes Russia can sell its oil and gas elsewhere think China who has an unquenchable thirst in terms of energy demands.  This is where human nature comes in, the me first attitude despite the atrocious incidents.

Canada in all this, well PM Harper has sounded sharp and hostile against Russia. We are fairly insulated from any possible retaliation from Russia except for our Northern Border which is with Russia, unfortunately Canadians do not look at that border, no one thinks that the Russian would dare claim the Arctic. Surely the Americans would come and defend us, think again Canada, the USA will do nothing if it is not in their interests, we are very likely to find ourselves alone in having to deal with Russia. We have no Navy and no Armed Forces to defend the Arctic Border, so it is wide open for the taking by Russia or whoever wants to take it. Again short-sighted policies by the Harper Government despite all the talk.

So the tragedy of MH17 could happen to any one of us and do not count on your government to help you out, other priorities will take precedent over your life, that is what is call ''Real Politik''.

In the meantime, do you remember that Syria is gripped by a vicious Civil War, Gaza is being bombarded by the Israeli Army, Iraq is unstable and a violent Jihadist group is now emerging. Afghanistan is still no further ahead and the Taliban is a dangerous force. How about those 200 girls kidnapped a few months ago by Boko Aram, no more news about them. The Media has lost interests in those stories. The world goes on and on.

Crimea, Ukraine, Russia, then what?

During the Sochi Winter Olympics we were told by numerous officials that this was the symbol of the New Russia, post-USSR, modern dynamic etc... What we were really seeing was a bunch of modern buildings and infrastructure. Mentalities had not changed one Iota. Remember the Beijing Summer Olympics a few years ago. Well I was posted the that Communist Paradise from 2004-2007 and I saw how you can transform a city like Beijing by State Decree to impress the world with shiny new buildings and infrastructure this does not mean that attitude and government policy or general culture has changed. You can install new drapes and paint walls, you still have a derelict house.

Just a few days after the end of the Olympics it now seems we are back in the old Russia. President V. Putin decided that given event in the Ukraine he had to protect Russia's National Interests. Now Putin is playing to a National audience, his home base want a strong eternal Russia, the Mother Russia of Peter the Great or Ivan the terrible, it wants its Icons of its old past.

Putin has strong and influential supporters, the Orthodox Church in Moscow who wishes to control the Orthodox Church in the Ukraine, H.I.H Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna, pretender to the Romanov throne and would be Tsarina and her son HIH Crown Prince George, Tsarevitch and Prince of Prussia, they are allied with the Church and can claim many monarchist who dream of a return to Imperial times, the Russian business elite who has grown rich with Putin, the Russian armed forces who feel they are regaining their old strength and part of the Russia people who are xenophobic and respond well to anti-Western propaganda.

Today the Communist Party of China and the President of the People's Republic of China came down on the side of Putin and Russia. This is why China was so quiet since the operation Crimea started. The Ukrainian Puppet and Moscow's man, President in exile Victor Ianoukovitch who is just over the border is also supporting all of Russia's moves. All his moves and words are stage manage by handlers in Moscow. Ianoukovitch is largely irrelevant now but useful nonetheless.

Why would Russia decide to occupy the Crimea? Well history should be our guide, first the city of Sebastopol where the Russian Navy is anchored was the creation of Tsarina Catherine II the Great in 1783. Before her Tsar Peter the Great at fought with much vigour the Ottoman Turks to get free access to the Black Sea. Historically the Crimea is part of the mythical greatness of Imperial Russia.
Of course the native people of the Crimea where the Tatars who lived under the Ottoman Turk rule until 1782 when Turkey lost the war against Imperial Russia and gave up the Crimea to Russia. Many Muslim Tatar fled to other parts of the Ottoman Empire, the Crimea was then populated with Russians, Ruthènes (Ukrainians) Moldaves and Germans.

Many Russian and Soviet leaders came from the Ukraine, Christianity entered Russian through Kiev 1000 years ago, the Kievian-Rus links go back centuries and have nothing to do with what Vladimir Putin wishes, he is simply using history as a guide.

There is also the question of the Ukraine of today compared to the Ukraine of 1946, the whole Western part was Poland, cities like Lviv were Polish not Ukrainian.  All this to say that the picture is a very confused one and not a simple black and white issue.

In 1954 under the rule of Nikita Krouchtchev, Crimea was given to the Socialist Republic of Ukraine.
A personal gift of the Secretary of the Communist Party to his adopted homeland Ukraine.

What is now emerging of this situation is that Russia had a very well prepared strategy to take over Crimea. A given sets of circumstances would trigger the deployment of Russian troops. While the world was looking at various events in and around Russia, Putin had given orders to prepare for this eventuality, supporting the then President and marginalized the Opposition groups. That NATO, the EU and the USA failed to see what was happening is not credible, they most probably knew but thought that it would probably not happen. It is now known and the US Congress is investigating, that the CIA had reported numerous times of the very real possibility of Russia taking over Crimea. But in an inter-governmental agency dispute the State Department ignored the reports and did not pass them along.

So we are presented with a fait accompli, the Russians have taken over Crimea, NATO has done very little despite the meetings and posturing. A resolution was passed by member countries. NATO could have asked Turkey a member State to close the Bosphorus to prevent Russian Navy ships to travel up to the Black Sea but it did not. The EU and Britain are not in favour of any economic sanctions, remembering that gas and other trade investments come from Russia. Germany and France prefer dialogue, the UK has done nothing to freeze assets so as not to anger President Putin. Everyone seems to be looking out for their economic interests.

The USA cannot do much either despite threats which are largely empty. Canada has huffed and puffed because our PM Harper is big on grand gesture always with an eye for the easy vote, in this case the Canadian-Ukrainian community in Saskatchewan. Our Foreign Minister Rusty Baird has made silly remarks about the Sudetenland and 1939 making a show of his ignorance and puffery.
Trade between Russia and Canada has increased from $1.5 billion a year to $4.5 billion in the last 3 years, a detail that seems to elude our PM and the Government. It would appear that Canada is not much interested in trade and more so in grand empty statements. It is well known that Putin has a profound dislike for Harper.

As for war, the media has gone on and on about it, really war with Russia? Is anyone serious? There is no chance of war between the USA and Russia, first because the public in the USA is not interested in Crimea or Ukraine after the adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. But more importantly war between the 2 powers would mean a nuclear war or the end of the world. NATO has been careful not to mention war and the wording of its declaration has been more of denunciation than anything else.
The EU even Poland which borders Russia is not talking war, sanctions maybe.

No politician cares much for this situation because Ukraine is a bankrupt country with multiple socio- economic problems, Russia remains the main important trade partner. What EU politicians are carefully doing is a ballet, giving one message to the masses in their respective countries to respond to their concerns over Human rights etc... but on the other hand carefully manage the fall-out with Russia to protect economic interests.

President Putin knows that the West is not going to do much beyond talking, he has carefully assessed past situations. He knows that he is still required to provide support to the EU and USA for the situation in Syria and Iran. So it is important not to alienate him otherwise those situations could drag on and become more complex than they are now. Just on the question of Iran, PM Netanyahu of Israël was making noises today while the world is busy with the crisis in Crimea.

The public also knows little about the new Government in Ukraine, though the various EU governments and politicians know probably more. There are some extreme elements in the group and some discredited Ukrainian politicians like Ioulia Timoshenko who was released from jail a few days ago, she certainly is not a unifying voice in Ukraine.

Will we discover later that the Ukrainian opposition are not partners with whom we wish to engage politically? Is Putin right in describing them as ultra-Nationalist and Fascists? His pronouncement are based on local history and how history is viewed and understood there. We cannot fall in the trap of deciding that Putin and Russia is wrong and all they say is merely propaganda to be dismissed. We too are often played for fools by our own politicians and media outlets.

Latest story today was that the EU was ready to concede the annexation of Crimea to Russia simply to buy peace and get guarantees that Putin will not try to annex the Eastern part of Ukraine. Stay tuned to see where this situation will go nowhere. Other developments reported by the magazine FP
mentions a private conversation between Catherine Ashton, EU Foreign Minister and Urmas Praet Estonia's Foreign Minister, they spoke on the phone and it was revealed that the sniper in Kiev who was responsible for most deaths is believed to be on the pay of the Opposition now in power.
Baroness Ashton was surprised to learn this from Urmas Praet who informed her that the Opposition now forming the new Government does not want the matter of the sniper to be investigated. Baroness Ashton simply said, neither do we. Could Putin be right, Kiev has been taken over by ultra-Nationalists and other extreme right groups but in the continuous East-West dispute we refuse to believe a word he is saying.

I want to offer my own solution to this crisis, since a lot of the power of the Russian Government stands at the moment on Oil and Gas and the enormous revenue it gives Russia, why not weaken Putin by attacking Oil and Gas revenues. Canada has lots of oil and gas and nowhere to send it. Why not offer energy contracts to the EU as a safe and reliable supplier.  It could be shipped directly from Canada's East Coast to Europe, no need for the Keystone XL Pipeline which is dead in the water at this time.

Canada by becoming the supplier of energy to Europe could help make Putin feel insecure. The Russian threat to cut-off shipments of oil and gas to Europe would vanish. A potential energy weapon which would force Putin to be far more agreeable once he has less money coming into his coffers.
It would enhance Canadian trade and increase our world profile.

Dedicated to our Athletes in Sochi

On the eve of the Opening of the Olympic games in the old USSR, I mean Russia, I really don't see much difference.  I dedicate this song to the athletes in the hope that despite the controversy even before the opening, not to mention the sites are not really ready, some good might come of this orgy of  money 51 Billion $ to make a point, n'est ce pas Vladimir.

Here is Beatrice Lillie, Lady Peel from Toronto to sing There are Fairies at the bottom of the Garden.

In Ottawa our Mayor Jim Watson has announced that at City Hall the Gay Pride Flag will be flying during the length of the Olympic Games in Sochi.