In the last few weeks change has swept a part of the world where change did not seem possible. First Tunisia, a small country on the North African Coast. Regime change came fast, much faster than any thought possible, faster than any invading army could do. In Tunisia a dictator once the ''good friend'' of many governments in the West, ''notre ami Ben Ali'' as he was described by the French government, became a tyrant the day those governments who had found him useful, no longer thought he could be of any possible use. So many despots in Asia, in Latin America, in the Middle-East and Africa have known the same fate, a friend one day and a useless tyrant the next. As long as they did what they were told and protected trade, all was well. Saddam Hussein was once a good friend, the ally against Iran, until that fateful day in 1990 when he invaded Kuwait.
Egypt is now in turmoil, though being the biggest, oldest, most populous of all Arab countries, not being really Arab since the Egyptians think of themselves as a distinct people, with a national history going back to the beginning of Civilization, once a great Empire, Egypt is a very different story. Their President has been part of the national scene since the fall of the Monarchy in 1952. As a young man in the army, he attached himself to people like Sadat and Nasser. He was there when Nasser died of a heart attack and Sadat succeeded him. Again he was on the podium the day Sadat was killed and assume the mantel. He has become the intimate of many heads of State, a good friend, someone they found reliable and provided stability for the region. Protecting investment and trade and a buffer for Israel. You do not abandon such an old friend and this is why so many governments in the West have been very reluctant to ask for his departure. The exception, the British PM, but then again is it wise for England to be so bold, they have a long controversial story with Egypt, often seen in Egypt as would be colonial masters or aggressive power as during the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956.
What I find interesting about the crisis in Egypt is the response of Western Governments, on the one hand all important trade could be disrupted like the shipping routes through the Suez Canal, not a good thing, but how do you say this publicly without doing a double speak on democracy and human rights when you are one of those governments always hectoring the dictators. Yes you might say democracy and the aspiration of ordinary people is important but not to the point of upsetting trade and investors. It is as if the aspirations of the Egyptian people are less important than those of Europeans or North Americans, Equality and Democracy yes, but some people are more equal than others. Its the old North-South Dialogue, the have and have not, developed and developing.
Mubarak says I cannot go, there will be chaos, really, there is chaos now. The ruling party has been shaken and all the other countries of the region have taken notice. Their despots are worried, notice how Colonel Khadafy next door in Libya is quiet. What the region does not have and cannot provide to its people is a dignified life, jobs, public services, like clean water, decent housing, health care, good schools, safe food and opportunities. When your population is 80% under 30 years of age, it is difficult for any old dictator to satisfy the young, having so little to offer.
In the West, we are scared of Islam and Islamist, thinking if dictators are swept away, for sure Islam will take over. That is a very simplistic analysis and insults the intelligence of the populations of countries like Tunisia and Egypt and all other Arab countries and our own intelligence. You have to be a simpleton to believe such idiocy, unfortunately it is still an argument found and reported in the media.
Then the other concern is if Mubarak who was present when Egypt made peace with Israel and inherited the legacy of Anwar Sadat, if he should go what then. Maybe the next fellow will not follow the same policies. So far all the actors involved on the scene and who are around Mubarak have not shown any signs of departing from the established peace treaty, why should they. Let's not forget that Egypt lives from tourism and also receives billions in foreign support to maintain the peace with Israel. It is very unlikely that any new government in Egypt would renege and change course, it would be too costly.
The Government in Israel has reasons to worry, unwise policies and aggressive attitudes of the past 60 years may come back to haunt them. But then again the poverty of all its neighbors and the enormous need for improvement at all levels would occupy any new government trying to satisfy the needs of a young population. The priority would not be Israel or a new war but instead how to satisfy the enormous expectations of any regime change in the Arab world. Israel and the conflict would be quickly forgotten and put on the back burner. Look at Tunisia, since the change of regime in that country a few weeks ago, the population has been enjoying the new freedom to simply do and say what you want without fear. They are looking at economic improvements and a new horizon.
Let us not forget that any people ruled by a dictator is just as deserving of the liberties we enjoy. Let's not deny them those same rights and opportunities because they happen to live in what we believe to be less advanced countries or because we want to protect our lifestyle, trade and investments before human dignity.
Egypt is now in turmoil, though being the biggest, oldest, most populous of all Arab countries, not being really Arab since the Egyptians think of themselves as a distinct people, with a national history going back to the beginning of Civilization, once a great Empire, Egypt is a very different story. Their President has been part of the national scene since the fall of the Monarchy in 1952. As a young man in the army, he attached himself to people like Sadat and Nasser. He was there when Nasser died of a heart attack and Sadat succeeded him. Again he was on the podium the day Sadat was killed and assume the mantel. He has become the intimate of many heads of State, a good friend, someone they found reliable and provided stability for the region. Protecting investment and trade and a buffer for Israel. You do not abandon such an old friend and this is why so many governments in the West have been very reluctant to ask for his departure. The exception, the British PM, but then again is it wise for England to be so bold, they have a long controversial story with Egypt, often seen in Egypt as would be colonial masters or aggressive power as during the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956.
What I find interesting about the crisis in Egypt is the response of Western Governments, on the one hand all important trade could be disrupted like the shipping routes through the Suez Canal, not a good thing, but how do you say this publicly without doing a double speak on democracy and human rights when you are one of those governments always hectoring the dictators. Yes you might say democracy and the aspiration of ordinary people is important but not to the point of upsetting trade and investors. It is as if the aspirations of the Egyptian people are less important than those of Europeans or North Americans, Equality and Democracy yes, but some people are more equal than others. Its the old North-South Dialogue, the have and have not, developed and developing.
Mubarak says I cannot go, there will be chaos, really, there is chaos now. The ruling party has been shaken and all the other countries of the region have taken notice. Their despots are worried, notice how Colonel Khadafy next door in Libya is quiet. What the region does not have and cannot provide to its people is a dignified life, jobs, public services, like clean water, decent housing, health care, good schools, safe food and opportunities. When your population is 80% under 30 years of age, it is difficult for any old dictator to satisfy the young, having so little to offer.
In the West, we are scared of Islam and Islamist, thinking if dictators are swept away, for sure Islam will take over. That is a very simplistic analysis and insults the intelligence of the populations of countries like Tunisia and Egypt and all other Arab countries and our own intelligence. You have to be a simpleton to believe such idiocy, unfortunately it is still an argument found and reported in the media.
Then the other concern is if Mubarak who was present when Egypt made peace with Israel and inherited the legacy of Anwar Sadat, if he should go what then. Maybe the next fellow will not follow the same policies. So far all the actors involved on the scene and who are around Mubarak have not shown any signs of departing from the established peace treaty, why should they. Let's not forget that Egypt lives from tourism and also receives billions in foreign support to maintain the peace with Israel. It is very unlikely that any new government in Egypt would renege and change course, it would be too costly.
The Government in Israel has reasons to worry, unwise policies and aggressive attitudes of the past 60 years may come back to haunt them. But then again the poverty of all its neighbors and the enormous need for improvement at all levels would occupy any new government trying to satisfy the needs of a young population. The priority would not be Israel or a new war but instead how to satisfy the enormous expectations of any regime change in the Arab world. Israel and the conflict would be quickly forgotten and put on the back burner. Look at Tunisia, since the change of regime in that country a few weeks ago, the population has been enjoying the new freedom to simply do and say what you want without fear. They are looking at economic improvements and a new horizon.
Let us not forget that any people ruled by a dictator is just as deserving of the liberties we enjoy. Let's not deny them those same rights and opportunities because they happen to live in what we believe to be less advanced countries or because we want to protect our lifestyle, trade and investments before human dignity.
that was very sensible; I thank you for helping me understand Egypt better.
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure, I lived 8 yrs of my life in that part of the world and 3 in Egypt, I have enourmous respect for Egyptians and their country despite all the poverty and hardships.
ReplyDelete